The Prime Minister of France may be right by counting the French need to work more, but has little hope when persuading people to accept his antipopulist message, writes John Lichfield.
French prime minister François Bayrou is many things, but he is not a populist. He believes in trusting people, not to lie to them.
Populists tell people that problems come from “trap of foreigners”.
Bayrou told the French this week that their problems came … themselves. The many problems of France can only be solved, he said, because of the efforts and sacrifices of the French people.
“We do not work enough and do not produce enough,” said Prime Minister on Tuesday. “We have not enough resources because our country is not productive enough.”
“If our production per person were at the same level as our European neighbors, we would have a budget deficit.”
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou leads a conference on public finances in Paris on April 15, 2025. (Alain Jocard / AFP photo)
All of that is accurate but difficult to put in the child of three or four words phrases that worship the populists. “Make France work harder” or “take less vacation” are not slogans that can win elections in France or anywhere else.
Bayrou was a press conference before a special conference on how to cut 40 billion euros of the French budget deficit next year. The “easy” answer, he said, would increase taxes or accumulate debts. Those were the “usual” solutions that had caused the current crisis.
France was already “the most taxed country in the world”; Annual annual debt payments to an unsustainable € 100 billion a year by 2029.
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The time had come for a root and branch reexamination of all state expenses, Bayrou said. That could only happen with a “Award of consciousness”, Or new awareness, or the financial disaster of France among common people.
“Nothing is possible without your support and we will not gain support unless they understand the problems we face,” he said.
In other words, the prime minister appealed for a child or a realistic popism or a “populist antipopulism.” Good luck with that.
Is it exaggerating the problem? No. In any case, I was understanding it.
To fulfill its international commitments, France must reduce its budget deficit of 5.4 percent or GDP this year to 4.6 percent in 2026 and 3 percent by 2029.
The government has no majority in the National Assembly. Michel Barnier’s coalition fell in December when he tried to approve a deficit reduction budget for this year. Bayrou was sneaked one in February by increasing spending and massaging the figures.
The economy has dropped since then and, thanks to Donald Trump, it can fall more. Already, to meet the objective of promised deficit, additional 5 billion euros must be divided from this year’s budget.
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France, like other EU states, has pledged to increase defense spending to deal with the threat of Russia and the United States Europe. In theory, military spending will increase from 2 percent of GDP to 3 percent or 3.5 percent by 2030. Bayrou suggested on Tuesday that it would not be an increase in the defense budget next year the additional ones of € 3 billion already planned.
It is also assumed that investment in education and health should also increase. Where do the cuts come from when almost a third of all state expenses are carried out in mandatory social benefits, from guest houses to inemploye to medical care?
Bayrou’s long -term solution must work harder and win more to pay the services you want is correct. But it is a long -term solution. Nothing can change quickly if you can change at all.
The problem is not individual laziness or lack of productivity. Those French who work, work well. The problem is anticipated retirement, long studies, young inemployent and a shortage of job opportunities for older people who want to work.
The hours worked by the French who work are not so far from the EU average. But in terms of “work per inhabitant”, Bayrou is right. France works significantly less than other EU countries: 634 hours a year, according to the OECD, compared to 728 in Germany, 708 in Spain and 708 in Italy.
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This is a cultural problem, as well as an economic problem. It will take many years, or decades, to correct, even if France chooses governments committed to correcting it.
President Emmanuel Macron has been hitting the low average work rate of France for eight years without achieving much. Its modest, but hated, increases in the state retirement age from 62 to 64, while other EU nations are moving around 67, destroyed their second mandate.
The reaction of the unions and political opponents to the comments of “Blood, sweat and tears” of Bayrou on Tuesday were predictable. All this was a government public relations exercise, they said. The solution was simple. “Award taxes on the rich,” said the left. “Reduce immigration,” said the extreme right.
The French mayors associated the deficit reduction conference completely. Saving money was another person’s problem.
Trust people? Make France work harder? Find consensual ways of spending less?
Bayrou’s populist antipopulism can be correct in theory, but it is not irremediably little practical. France will go bankrupt, or almost bankrupt, before there is a popular recognition that “something must be done.”
Politicians will have to resolve disaster and French politics is too shipyard to achieve long before the presidential elections in 2027.
Is there anyone ready to run for president in the slogan? “It works harder and spends less.”
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