In two more years a handful of days, France will vote to choose a new president, writes John Lichfield. Neinder of the two candidates who reached the second round in 2017 and 2022 can work again, so who will win?
Emmanuel Macron will have fulfilled two terms of five years, which is all that the Constitution allows. Marine Le Pen will be prohibited as an Embeyer convicted of public money, unless at least she wins her appeal next year.
So who will be the next president of the Republic?
Jordan Bardella, Sidekick Glib by Marine Le Pen, will be only 32 years old. He even publicly suggested the other day that his protected “was not ready.” And yet, long-range surveys put it far ahead of the rest of the potential field 2027, with the same projected result of first round as Pen (33-36 percent).
Those, however, are first round scores. They are threateningly high, but do not guarantee a victory of extreme right in runoff. On three occasions in the fifth Republic, in 1974, in 1981 and in 1995, it was the runner -up in the first round who exceeded the survey and became president in the second round.
He explained: How the two -round voting system works in France
That could easily happen again in 2027. The projected score of the extreme right is historical, but the surveys suggest that both Le Pen and Bardella would still fight to reach 50 percent in the second round. His negative qualifications are at the top of the 40. In other words, almost half of the electorate says they would not vote for any of them.
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The extreme right score tends to reach its maximum point between the presidential elections and deflate as the voters approach the day of the vote. Donald Trump’s destructive behavior and Vladimir Putin in the next two years could undermine the popularity of populists through Europe.
In France, it will much defend, however, in three things: which other candidate reaches the second round; His impulse at the end of the first round; And the size of the gap that compares in Le Pen/Bardella.
Two years outside, the persecution package is already huge and grows all the time. I can tell 18 declared or probable runners. Only five, in my opinion, have an intelligent opportunity to reach the second round.
In the center, the four possible successors of President Macron include three of his five prime ministers: Edouard Philippe (a declared candidate); Gabriel Attal (who almost declared last weekend); and François Bayrou (which is widely sustained for thinking that its turn has arrived). Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin also believes in his own destiny.
Bayrou is sinking. Darmanin is nowhere. Philippe and Attal have, with much, the highest first round surveys scores in the package pursued by Pen/Bardella (23 percent and 18 percent in an Elabe survey last weekend). However, these projections assume that there is only one centrist leader and that the other has disappeared miraculously.
On the left, there are at least eight probable contenders, if it includes the stubborn candidates of the rival trotskist tribes plus the communists and the greens. There are only three left candidates who could approach or exceed double figures. They are Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the perennial trustee of the left RIP-IT-ALL-DOWN; François Ruffin, his most modern and more pleasant rival; and Raphael Glucksmann, the positive revivalist of the center of the reformist left and pro -European.
The former socialist president, François Hollande, also dreams of a resurrection similar to Trump. Ought.
In the widely gaullist center-right, there are four declared or probable runners, including three non-hopters and a dark horse. Non -buyers are the unfortunate leader of Les Republicins, Laurent Wauquseze, who is widely held only in his own party; The president of the northern region of France, Xavier Bertrand; And, unlikely but insistent, the former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Chirac -era, Dominique de Vilepin.
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The Dark-Horse is the hard Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, who is attributed 10 percent in some first round surveys. However, it is unlikely that both candidates in the second round can come from the hard right and task.
Two candidates of the Xenophobic right, nationalist but anti-lle: Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aencán, whose main meaning will be to add another 7 points to the total potential potential of Le/Bardella should be added to this multitude.
Of these 18 candidates (others will undoubtedly arise) only one can reach the second round with Le Pen/Bardella. That is the golden ticket. Whoever joins the right in runoff will have a good opportunity to be the next president.
The five with at least one thin possibility of reaching the second round are, in my opinion, Philippe, Attal, Mélenchon, Glucksmann and Retailleau.
The race begins, in effect, now. So far there are no agreed systems to lose weight the field full of people. There could be a primary choice once again next year for the center-right. That is unlikely to the left and in the center.
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For them, only primary will be the public, opinion surveys, giving surveyrs enormous power. Will Mélenchon continue to dominate the left? Or most left -wing voters, desperate by a winning candidate, will reinforce early or late trends in surveys and change Ruffin or Glucksmann?
The other race within a race will fight between two former prime ministers of Macron, Philippe and Attal. They are performing an act of wires: trying to happen to Emmanuel while they distance Macron’s thematic rings.
If one runs very much in the surveys, the other can admit and surrender. If they remain in the neck and neck in 2027, the center could be divided disastrously into the first round on April 11 or 18.
That could allow a leftist candidate or Bruno Retailleau take second place for a fraction and confront Le Pen/Bardella in the second round on April 25 or May 2.
A close end for second place in the first round could mean not impulse for the challenger to the right end in runoff. You can leave a gap of 12 or 13 points behind Le Pen/Bardella more than any gap that a leg bridge has had in any presidential election in the fifth Republic.
It could mean an extreme right president.
In the last two elections, I was convinced that Le Pen could not win. In 2027, I think a victory of Le Pen/Bardella is far from being safe. But it is possible.
Consider the possible permutations.
Edouard Philippe V Le Pen/Bardella? Philippe wins, probably.
Gabriel Attal V Pen/Bardella? Attal wins, probably.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon V Le Pen/Bardella. The right end wins, almost certain.
Bruno Retailleau V Le Pen/Bardella. Retailleau wins.
Raphael Glucksmann V Le Pen/Bardella. A coin cover.
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