The photovoltaic demonstration project of the Xinghuo water surface of Daqing Oilfield in Daqing, Heilongjiang province of China del Nortosa, on August 8, 2024. Zhang Tao / Xinhua through Getty Images
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For the first time, an increase in China’s renewable energy production has led to a fall in carbon emissions in the country, despite the growing increase in energy demand.
The decrease in emissions marks an important milestone in China’s energy transition, according to an analysis by Lauri Myllivirta, main and co -founder analyst at the Clean Energy and Air Research Center (CREA) in Finland, published by Carbon Letter.
“The growth in clean energy generation has now exceeded the current average growth already long term in the demand for electricity, which has reduced the use of fossil fuels,” wrote MyLlyvirta in the report. “The current fall is the first time that the main driver is the growth in the generation of clean energy.”
The report says that China’s total energy demand increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter of this year, while the thermal energy generation, mainly coal and gas, fell 4.7 percent.
China is the largest greenhouse gase emitter in the world, but aims to achieve maximum emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, Bangkok Post reported.
The country has built almost double solar and wind capacity as all other combined countries, according to the investigation published in 2024.
Myllyvirta said that China’s installation of the new solar, wind and nuclear capacity led to a reduction of 1.6 percent carbon emissions in the first quarter of 2025.
Their emissions of the electrical sector also fell by 5.8 percent, compensating the emissions of the use of coal in chemical and metal industries.
“The electricity supply of the new wind, solar and nuclear capacity was sufficient to reduce the production of coal force, even when the demand arose, the previous falls were due to the weak growth,” said MyLlyvirta. “However, they remain only 1% below the last peak, which implies that any short -term jump could cause China CO2 emissions to rise to a new record.”
China is also “significantly out of the way” for its 2030 objective to reduce carbon intensity, emissions in relation to the Gross Domestic Product, by virtue of the Paris Agreement. The country promised a reduction in carbon intensity of 65 percent compared to 2005 levels at the end of the decade.
“[T]The future path of China CO2 emissions remains in balance, depending on trends within each sector of its economy, as well as China’s response to [United States President Donald] Trump’s rates, “Myllyvirta wrote in the report.
China has become a world leader in renewable energy, while Trump has pressed for greater fossil fuel extraction.
However, coal still constitutes a significant portion of China’s combination of energy. Last year, the country began the construction of coal projects that are expected to produce 94.5 Gigawatts of power, 93 percent of the world total, an February report by Global Energy Monitor and Crea said. It is anticipated that much of the new coal capacity will be used as a backup energy source.
In April 2025, the first quarter data showed that China’s solar and wind capacity for the first time exceeded its thermal capacity.
Myllyvirta’s analysis said emissions probably not only had reached their maximum point in China’s electricity sector, but also in the consumption of oil products and steel sectors and construction materials.
“These sectors together represent approximately 80% of China CO2 emissions. Drainned CO2. However, there are uncertainties and potential for a short -term rebound in all these sectors,” explained MyLlyvirta.
“All this suggests that there is the possibility that China’s emissions continue to fall and for the country to reach reductions in substantial absolute emissions in the next five years. 2030,” myllyvirta concluded.
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